The Cy Young Award is one of the most prestigious accolades in Major League Baseball (MLB), and the odds are stacked against relievers winning it. However, San Diego Padres closer Mason Miller has already made a strong case for himself, with an impressive 0.00 ERA and 0.35 WHIP, along with an MLB-best eight saves in eight tries. What's truly remarkable is his strikeout rate, as he's faced 38 batters and struck out 27 of them, which is a staggering 71.1% of the time. This puts him in the top 25 starting pitchers in terms of strikeouts, despite only throwing 11 ⅓ innings.
The odds for the 2026 NL Cy Young Award are out, and Miller is already in the conversation, with odds of +1500, which is shorter than some of the game's top stars like Shohei Ohtani and Sandy Alcantara. While it's early to be talking about Cy Young contenders, Miller's performance is certainly worth noting. Relievers have won the Cy Young Award before, but it's been a while since the last one, and the workload difference between starters and relievers makes it even more challenging for relievers to win the award.
To make a real Cy Young run, Miller would need to maintain his current level of dominance. The author suggests a hypothetical line of 70 IP, 0.60 ERA, 0.70 WHIP, 50 saves in 52 chances, 124 K, 12 BB, and 5.6 WAR. While this is an extreme projection, it highlights the potential for Miller to make a strong case. The author acknowledges that this level of performance is unlikely, but it's an interesting thought experiment.
The author also considers the competition from starting pitchers, using the example of 2021 Corbin Burnes, who won the Cy Young Award. If Miller could maintain his current performance and the best starting pitcher in the NL had a similar season, he might have a legitimate chance. However, the author ultimately concludes that Miller is unlikely to win the Cy Young Award, but it's still fun to speculate and watch his progress.
